What Is Expected Goals (xG) and Why Clubs Rely On It
Expected goals, or xG, tries to answer a simple question: given the quality of the chances a team created, how many goals "should" they have scored?
How the number is built
Each shot is assigned a probability of scoring based on factors like distance, angle and the type of pass that set it up. Add those probabilities across a match and you get a team's xG. A tap-in might be worth 0.8, a speculative long-range effort 0.03. It is a measure of chance quality, not a verdict.
What it is good and bad at
Over many matches, xG is a strong guide to whether results are sustainable — a team scoring far above its xG is often riding luck that fades. Over a single game it is noisier, because football is low-scoring and one moment can decide everything. Used sensibly, it explains performances that the scoreline alone hides.
